Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 19.605564 20.646502 21.733691 22.957571 24.301471 25.737344 27.394302
2026-02-08 17.824024 19.244651 20.793202 22.619396 24.731190 27.117973 30.051022
2026-02-15 16.763732 18.396042 20.226270 22.454049 25.125828 28.272136 32.328575
2026-02-22 16.253122 18.086597 20.193498 22.831378 26.102170 30.105902 35.515589
2026-03-01 15.549985 17.484230 19.748144 22.644207 26.329624 30.982819 37.518522
2026-03-08 14.774759 16.741830 19.076275 22.112079 26.054201 31.155494 38.550733
2026-03-15 14.214052 16.224520 18.641994 21.835773 26.065459 31.674046 40.069956
2026-03-22 14.015971 16.135728 18.724323 22.209176 26.935796 33.395344 43.467836
2026-03-29 13.770785 15.971543 18.695607 22.424511 27.592008 34.852861 46.621034
2026-04-05 13.525309 15.792499 18.633499 22.582669 28.166485 36.222777 49.784719
2026-04-12 13.179141 15.468820 18.365681 22.441620 28.298031 36.931626 51.932729
2026-04-19 12.786698 15.070408 17.981877 22.118413 28.139835 37.175363 53.297836
2026-04-26 12.407348 14.685554 17.612962 21.814358 28.014292 37.494407 54.904651
2026-05-03 12.047025 14.314873 17.250218 21.502731 27.859037 37.753715 56.440673
2026-05-10 11.769226 14.043265 17.009635 21.350878 27.931127 38.378989 58.743846
2026-05-17 11.686856 14.027273 17.114082 21.697499 28.786701 40.375168 64.070390
2026-05-24 11.430762 13.769090 16.873990 21.525599 28.811532 40.943514 66.536816
2026-05-31 11.081107 13.374965 16.432473 21.036446 28.300141 40.525330 66.795236
2026-06-07 10.826931 13.104222 16.155493 20.782198 28.154896 40.749708 68.528192
2026-06-14 10.780936 13.115398 16.273731 21.125750 29.004922 42.856182 75.021607
2026-06-21 10.690744 13.062288 16.297445 21.323725 29.621470 44.584972 81.023041
2026-06-28 10.588542 12.989045 16.288732 21.469064 30.154378 46.202561 87.158873
2026-07-05 10.408670 12.802553 16.110039 21.339450 30.200183 46.851106 90.792580